China’s HFC emissions exceed 20 per cent of global total

China’s HFC emissions now represent more than 20 per cent of the global total, with research showing a 30-fold increase since 2005 that threatens international climate goals.

A study published in Environmental Science & Technology found that combined emissions of three major HFCs reached 206.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2022, roughly equal to the annual emissions of more than 500 gas-fired power stations.

The research, led by Xiaoyi Hu and based on high-frequency monitoring from northern China’s Changdao station, highlights a critical gap in current climate policy that allows China to legally increase its HFC consumption by up to 15 per cent despite global reduction targets.

“The baseline calculation under the Kigali Amendment allows too much room for growth and undermines the ambition of this global agreement,” said Environmental Investigation Agency UK climate campaign lead Clare Perry.

Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, China must cap its HFC use in 2024 and reduce it by 10 per cent by 2029.

However, the country’s 2023 consumption was only 85 per cent of its baseline cap, leaving significant room for growth.

Ms Perry warned that even when China implements its required 10 per cent reduction, it could still increase emissions by 45.2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, with the next mandated reduction not occurring until 2035.

“We are facing a global climate crisis and must urgently cut all greenhouse gas emissions this decade,” she said.

China dominates both HFC production and equipment manufacturing, accounting for roughly 35 per cent of global air conditioning exports worth an estimated $A33b annually.

This export market raises complex questions about shared responsibility for emissions occurring beyond China’s borders.

The United Nations Environment Programme reports that HFC emissions are growing at up to 10 per cent annually, undermining efforts to slow climate change.

Although contributing to ozone layer recovery, most HFCs have high global warming potential (GWP) ratings – R-125 traps 3500 times more heat than carbon dioxide, while R-134a and R-143a have respective GWPs of 1430 and 4470.

The Changdao monitoring station revealed that China’s HFC emissions surged from 7.1 million tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2005 to 206.4 million tonnes in 2022. Per capita, per area and per GDP measurements now all exceed global averages.

Responding to mounting pressure, China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment published a new action plan on April 9, outlining commitments to reduce HFC emissions as part of its broader climate strategy.

The plan sets targets for a 10 per cent reduction in HFC production by 2029 from a 2024 baseline of two billion tonnes CO2 equivalent, and a 10 per cent cut in consumption from a baseline of 900 million tonnes.

“These targets are critical for mitigating the short-term global warming effects of HFCs,” said Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development senior China counsel Sun Xiaopu.

China plans to phase out HFC-containing fridges and freezers by 2026 and ban HFC use in most cooling systems, including air-conditioners, by 2029.

The government will introduce stricter monitoring and licensing requirements alongside tougher penalties for non-compliance.

Peking University professor Hu Jianxin noted that China has shown willingness to act ambitiously, referencing a 2021 notice freezing domestic production capacity for five widely used HFCs two years ahead of international requirements.

Significant challenges remain. The slow development of alternative technologies – many patented by non-Chinese companies – and higher costs could hinder progress. 

Current regulations apply only to domestic use, exempting exported products from restrictions.

A report by the Institute for Global Decarbonisation Progress suggests that halting exports of inefficient, HFC-containing air-conditioners to Southeast Asia could prevent more than one gigatonne of CO2 equivalent emissions over 25 years.

Multiple reports have also surfaced about illegal HFC production in China, sparked by industry whistleblowers. 

Authorities responded by shutting down facilities, imposing fines and seizing illicitly produced substances.

In 2020, China’s HFC emissions reached 273 million tonnes CO2 equivalent, accounting for more than two per cent of the country’s total CO2 emissions.

Given its dominant role in global HFC production, consumption and exports, China’s reduction efforts will prove critical to international climate goals.

Progress depends on stronger regulatory frameworks, innovation in low-emission technologies and deeper global cooperation to manage environmental risks.

The EIA has called on China and other Montreal Protocol signatories to follow the European Union’s lead and accelerate HFC phase-downs. Without stronger action, experts warn that emissions from China alone could significantly offset global greenhouse gas reduction progress.